Model 1: Girija Is To Be Blamed

The NC was in power more than most during the 90s, and Girija was Prime Minister more than most. But instead of consolidating the democracy, the Girijas of the world became the new establishment. Massive corruption was institutionalized. The aspiratinos of the Madhesis, the Janajatis, the Dalits, the women, the poor were not given proper channels. Things fall apart when the center can not hold.

Girija's inflexibility that served so well in his quest for democracy became his bane post-democracy. A party with a clear majority going for mid-term elections is ridiculous. Girija does not know how to save face: he only knows how to corner his opponents into desperation. He does not understand compromise and coalition building is the name of the game in a democratic framework.

Because the moderate center did not perform, the left and the right came in to fill the vacuum.

Model 2: King G Is To Be Blamed

The king gets neither democracy nor constitutional monarchy, or he would not talk of being a "constructive monarch." He has acted a mirror image of the Maoists in trying to fill the vacuum left by the political parties. That might be cunning, and possible in the murky waters of today, but it is not magananimous. The king patronizingly refers to the country as his family. That shows a lack of gut-feel for basic premises in democracy.

King G got Chand to almost double the royal budget. That is NC style brahmaloot many times over.

Model 3: Deuba Is To Be Blamed

Why get rid of the parliament, bro! In the first place....

Model 4: The Maoists Are To Be Blamed

Not even the Chinese are Maoists anymore. The haat bazar in a remote village in Nepal is the market economy in action. The ancient Buddhist republics were democracies in action. Those twins are the necessary engines for growth. Gorbachev knows more about communist theory than Prachanda or Baburam, and he has said the market is it.

The LTTE have been far more lethal than the Maoists can ever hope to be, militarily. And the LTTE were not able to take over Colombo even after 20 vicious years. So the military option is out.

It is laughable of the Maoists to think the king will willingly give over power. Not this king. If anything King G will want to expand his role.

The dictatorship of the proletariat is not about to happen. Instead it is a game of who will blink first, and the two extreme sides do not care if the commoners suffer in the interim.

Supermodel 1: Panchayat II

There is a very real possibility the king decides he has had enough of it, and he plain takes over. Which will be the final blow of the right to the rest of the political spectrum. But such a move will, by definition, engineer a massive backlash. And more than Maoists will rally behind an all-out call for a republic.

Supermodel 2: "Jana Sarkar"

That does not exist in the rural areas either. It is more statelessness, lawlessness. And the urban centers hold strong. It can not be imagined Kathmandu can be taken over by the Maoists.

Not going to happen.

Supermodel 3: Constituent Assembly

This is the only option for quickie peace. But one suspects those now in power will not go for it. Instead they will wait and wait and wait. For the Maoists to possibly tire out. In the mean time, the people be damned.

Iraq will soon have elections for such a thing. And they will do fine for it.

Let the people decide.

But such a move will have to be simultaneous a total disarming of the Maoists.

Supermodel 4: Inflexibility

That Giriaj disease pervades the entire political spectrum. Mero goru ko barhai takka. This more than anything else is holding progress back.

What exactly could the king do?

He could go on Television, and give a speech announcing the elections for a Constituent Assembly and a restoration of all basic rights. That might be his only option.

What else?

I gave him 3 months when he gave himself 3 years. Now he is giving himself 3 months, and I give him 3 weeks!

Both the Monarchists and the Maoists seem to be raising the stakes. The chaos for civilians has gone from bad to worse.

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=71766
A rebel spokesman said the group's previous demands were outdated and they would now focus on the abolition of the monarchy....

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1020037.cms
Encouraged perhaps by the success of their nation-wide indefinite blockade .... It is only Kathmandu that remains insulated from the traffic halt..... In Banipa, barely 25 km from the capital, a group of insurgents on Saturday blasted the mid-market statue of King Trubhuvan.

- http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1019835.cms
Nepal?s new government has ruled out any more appeals to Maoists to come for negotiations .... ?We still believe that they will come forward.?

- http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-02-13-voa18.cfm

Looks like the king is set to duplicate Burma.

(1) Stay the military course. Shun democracy.
(2) Forget international pressure. Domestic rule and revenues are enough, and there will always be a few that will play ball: Pakistan, China, North Korea, Burma.

From day one he has been in the game of expanding his power base.

(1) Get rid of the parliament.
(2) Split Congress, RPP, Sadbhavana.
(3) Induct a Mainali bro to see if that splits the UML.
(4) Call Maoists for talks with an aim to split the Maoists between the military wing and the political wing.
(5) Split the international community based on democracy and autocracy buffs.

Also the king seems to bring in all the prime ministers he "missed" after he was kiing and no longer king at age 4. Fillng the gaps, sort of.


- http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=82620
The six leaders included Sekhar Koirala (Nepali Congress-D), Pradeep Giri (NCP-UML) Gobind Prasad Koirala (NCP-U), Chandra Dev Joshi (NCP-Mashal) Chitra Bahadur KC and Rajendra Mahato (NSP-A). ........ six Nepalese political parties came together, for the first time on Monday, to form a united front for fighting the emergency ...Regarding recruiting Maoist support for their cause, he said that would be decided at a later date. .. ?In Nepal?s 240-year history, the most destabilising factor has been the king,? he said.

- http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldlatest/story/0,1280,-4799970,00.html
The United States recalled its ambassador .......... Britain and France have also recalled their ambassadors. .....``We have to deal with whatever government is in office, but our sympathies lie with the democratic forces in that country,'' Indian Foreign Secretary Shyam Saran said......Kritinidhi Bista, 79, and Tulsi Giri, 78, were named vice chairmen of the 10-member Cabinet .....Rebel leader Prachanda said the king's action has ``ended any and all possibility of peace talks.''

- http://newsfromrussia.com/world/2005/02/15/58272.html

- http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4266767.stm
Mr Giri told Reuters that Nepal was acting no differently from the US after the World Trade Centre attack in September 2001, or from India in its fight against militants in Kashmir. ....The king moved to ease some restrictions on Monday, when he freed former premier Surya Bahadur Thapa, a prominent lawyer and a senior leader of the country's biggest communist party. .....the kingdom's biggest party, the Nepali Congress, is calling for a nationwide, non-violent struggle for the restoration of democracy from this Friday .........A transport blockade launched by Maoist rebels entered its fourth day on Tuesday, with traffic movement reported to be lower than normal and prices rising in the capital, Kathmandu. ..........The rebels say that the royal coup has forced them to abandon earlier negotiation demands and implement the blockade as a means of abolishing the monarchy.

- http://www.amnesty.org.uk/news/press/15936.shtml
Amnesty International?s Secretary General Irene Khan said:

"Our first meetings with human rights defenders have highlighted a picture of insecurity, deepened by uncertainty in the wake of the state of emergency, and fear, particularly for those who remain inaccessible in remote parts of the country.

"We are here to express our solidarity and support to them, and to explore practical means of ensuring their protection and that of other groups who are at risk."

....possible widespread human rights abuses, including the killing of civilians, committed by the Maoists during the ?bandh?.

- http://news.newkerala.com/india-news/?action=fullnews&id=72496
India under no obligation to supply arms to Nepal: Pranab

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1022129.cms
Britain and several other European Union countries have recalled their ambassadors in Kathmandu, in what's being seen as a somewhat delayed, but deeply significant global diplomatic frown at King Gyanendra's bloodless coup of a fortnight ago. ...British diplomatic sources told TOI that arms exports contracts with Nepal could be reviewed ......The EU continues to judge that there can be no acceptable military solution to Nepal's problems and that any search for a solution by military means by either side will only add to and prolong the suffering of the Nepalese people

- http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story.php?content_id=64761
Giri, who was brought out of decades of political obscurity ....Giri said the government would have no choice but to go after the guerrillas if they kept rejecting peace talks.

- http://news.newkerala.com/india-news/?action=fullnews&id=72487
VHP sources said the outfit's supremo Ashok Singhal was likely to visit Nepal shortly and meet King Gyanendra

Scenario 1: King goes the Burma path. Totally ignores all international pressure. Keeps on keeping on. Bides for time. Is out of favor with three major foces: (1) Maoists, (2) India-US-EU, (3) Parties. But this would be hard to sustain. Very hard, indeed. I mean, how long can the unelected Mayor of Kathmandu claim to be King Of Nepal?

Scenario 2: Displaced parties gain the upper hand, and get the Maoists to join for a Democratic Republic. India-US-UK on their side. Popular, mass unrest nationwide. Maoist blockade also agitates the valley. Constitutional monarchy calls no longer viable due to the monarch's intransigence.

Neither look good for the king. Why does he still insist on going the Mahendra route? Love for father? 2005 is no 1960.

More news.

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=71949
Koirala's party declares war against king.... some Nepali Congress leaders have gone underground to plan their strategy against the royal move while some have gone to India to mobilise a mass movement from there......the Nepali Congress said its units, sister organisations and "well-wishers" would start peaceful protests in all of Nepal's 75 districts from Feb 18 .....82-year-old Koirala continues to be under house arrest.

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=71919
..says Sujata Koirala ...."Monarchy is doomed ...."If a referendum were held, he will hardly get any votes. ....her face showing no sign of fatigue after her audacious escape to India Friday after a five-day trek. ....Koirala's face darkened with fear as she spoke about an imminent threat to her father's life. ...."There is an internal royal plan to finish him. .....she came to India as she heard about the king's "insidious plan to persecute and torture her." We all want a democratic and republican form of government ..........Enunciating a likely grand alliance of pro-democracy forces and the Maoists ....Representatives of Nepal's leading political parties, including Nepali Congress and Jan Morcha (Communist) are already in India to mobilise support ....

In a broad-based campaign to mobilise support for their cause, they will meet all political parties in India and ambassadors of all foreign countries and request them for their help in this struggle.

They will also request India and the international community to stop aid to Nepal.

Any mention of King Gyananedra and his son filled her with passionate rage. "Both father and son are mad maniacs. What happened to Germany when a mad man ruled? Neighbours should be afraid of dangerous consequences of such a king ruling Nepal."

"He is a cruel king. He can do anything any time. His son is totally crazy. Can this crazy man become a king?" warns Koirala, a strong proponent for grassroot democracy.

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1021858.cms
Nepal's monarchs and its feudal establishment are prone to naked ruthlessness ......this decadent ruling elite continues to occupy the upper echelons of the army....But a year later, Mahendra struck, in a way that is eerily reminiscent of what his son has just done. .....set himself up for a confrontation between the palace and Maoists.
.....The king wants to rule through the armed forces and the insurgents with clandestinely-acquired firepower. .....Soon after 9/11, he declared the Maoists "terrorists" in the hope of winning Washington's sympathy.

- http://www.thestatesman.net/page.news.php?clid=3&theme=&usrsess=1&id=68878
1950 ......The Indian deputy prime Minister and home minister Sardar Vallabhai Patel made a very strong statement in Parliament refusing to recognise the Nepal prime Minister?s action. Countries like the USA and the UK followed suit........King Gyanendra?s actions have put serious question marks before the institution of monarchy itself. The number of supporters of the republican form of government is on the increase. The history of the monarchy in Nepal itself has not been that of a service and welfare-oriented institution. Many, indeed, feel King Gyanendra is hastening the end of monarchy in Nepal. ........

Some of the actions show King G does not have the Burma option in mind. Well, then, is it the Musharraf option, where you do allow elections down the line, but everyone knows who is in charge, you "fire" elected Prime Ministers, at least just one just to show who is in charge. That is not democracy, that is Musharrafism. But even that might be long term stuff if King G gets his way, highly unlikely. What about the short term? The immediate term?


- http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/4269787.stm
"Necessary action has been taken against those involved in violation of human rights regardless of their ranks and will continue," state-run RSS media quoted Gen Pyar Jung Thapa as saying. ...... Nepal plans to relax curbs on civil rights gradually..

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=72838
The protesters shouted anti-king slogans outside the Nepali Consulate and burnt an effigy of king Gyanendra. .....For many years the people of Nepal have been demanding democracy and want abolition of the monarchy

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=72019
External Affairs Minister K.Natwar Singh on Monday told Nepal's envoy to India, Karna Dhoj Adhikari that the Himalyan kingdom must reinstate multi-party democracy, restore freedom of the media and take immediate steps for the release of political leaders, journalists and human rights activists. .....The meeting was held at the request of the Nepalese envoy.

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=72741
The Nepali Congress that had led pro-democracy movements in the 1950s and 1990s was the first political party to openly re-start its office .... Supporters, cadres, women activists and journalists flocked in while the armed police kept an eye on the party office from a van on the main road. ...... KC said though seven Nepalese parties have decided in New Delhi to form a united front and resist the royal coup, his party would stage a protest movement right on the soil of Nepal. ..... The Nepali Congress is said to be networking with the other parties in the country to present a united movement against the king. Ousted premier Deuba's Nepali Congress (Democratic) party is expected to join the opposition movement as well.

- http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=41962
US should join hands with India and Britain in warning Nepal that if it does not restore democratic freedom, the outside world would stop all support to the Himalayan kingdom .... a three-sided struggle is underway in Nepal--between a King who would return to absolute monarchy, insurgents inspired by the China of the 1950s and a democratic civil society that suddenly has been driven underground." The paper described as "delusional" the King's thinking that his methods would make progress against the Maoists who control large parts of the countryside and are renowned for their brutality...... The risk, it said, is of a new failed state in Asia, or a repeat of the brutal totalitarianism that once devastated China and Cambodia.

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=72700
After India, the US and Britain, Norway has summoned its ambassador back home .... Nepal's political isolation started with India, the US, Britian and France recalling their ambassadors

Laloo and Gyanendra: http://paramendra.motime.com/1108588002

I have been following Laloo and Gyanendra. Laloo is by far the more interesting character. King G has no sense of humor. The guy does not know the joy of working within an electoral framework, the pressures, the pulls and pushes, ups and downs, forces at work. Looks like Laloo has a tough election going on in Bihar, and King G is hellbent on giving Nepal a tough time.

News.

- http://www.navhindtimes.com/stories.php?part=news&Story_ID=021718
RECENT developments have put paid to the slender hope that Nepal?s King Gyanendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev would substantially relax the draconian restrictions he imposed on the freedoms of expression, political activity and movement on February 1 ... It is unlikely that Chinese support alone would see King Gyanendra through all the troubles he?ll face. Under international pressure, Beijing could dump him as easily as it backed him. This happened in the early 1990s, when Nepal became a democracy. China is unlikely to forgo dividends from improved relations with India for dubious short-term influence within Nepal. ..... The Nepali economy, already in deep trouble, could face a virtual collapse. ... The longer the king resists this, the greater and more coherent the opposition will become. .... Seventy-eight percent favour either a limited monarchy or its abolition....Ninety-one percent of all Nepalis want either a new constitution ..... ...............stop supplying arms to the Royal Nepal Army and direct aid to the government ....recommendation of the International Commission of Jurists ... Nepal?s systematic abuse of human rights, including arbitrary detention and beating of civilian suspects. ....India supplied Rs 375 crores worth of arms to Nepal ..... The Maoists only have an estimated 3,000 modern guns. They use questionable, indeed deplorable, methods. But they are not terrorists. They have support in the countryside, which is a cesspool of unaddressed grievances and unredeemed injustices. These iniquities and grievances can only be addressed through land reform, popular empowerment and minimum needs programmes in health and education, and a sweeping drive against corruption. India must encourage this, not a military approach.

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1023156.cms
Arjun Narasingh KC, says. .. the first leader who has stepped out of the shadows....Narasingh, who has had his legs broken earlier by the king's forces .... "Please come with us," one of them orders Narasingh." The conference is over. The army has arrested Narasingh. He has just joined the 500 NC leaders who are captive.

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=71997
Pradeep Giri, a key member of the Nepali Congress (Democratic) Working Committee, called for the abolition of monarchy.....Giri said, adding that "we have also opened up channels of communications with the Maoists.'' ....The king is not a mercenary of any kind to deliver anything at all, except his personal glory and photograph. So, I think by four weeks or so, I don't give him much, so by the third or fourth week, people will see the futility and absurdity of this kind of action. .... Mr Rajendra Mahato of the NSP-A claimed that the censorship on the media was near total in Nepal.

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=72727
President of the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) Christopher Warren was to arrive in Kathmandu Wednesday in response to appeals from Nepalese journalists.......IFJ represents more than 500,000 journalists in over 100 countries.

- http://www.telegraphindia.com/1050215/asp/nation/story_4380116.asp
Gyanendra pulled out 80-year-old Kirti Nidhi Bista from virtual oblivion .....Tulsi Giri ....The 79-year old, who had migrated to Sri Lanka a few years ago, was called by the palace for discussions three weeks ago and had been camping in a five-star hotel since.

Looks to me like the grondswell of grassroots protest has started although at only a trickle.

What amazes me is none of the parties are calling for a Democratic Republic. Save one, People's Front.

The king is responding to global pressure. And has said he will restore basic rights within 100 days.


- http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/02/18/news/kingdom.html

- http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12297332%255E2703,00.html
King Gyanendra said yesterday he had seized power to save Nepalese democracy from communist rebels and corrupt politicians. .... King Gyanendra had assured the US he would start restoring democracy within 100 days. ... The guerrillas have responded by imposing a transport blockade on the Himalayan nation until the king restores fundamental rights to the people and releases his grip on power.

- http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=512371
Only eight protesters showed up in the capital, Katmandu, and they were promptly arrested.................On Friday, at least 36 people were arrested in Janakpur Since the king's takeover, the rebels have refrained from major assaults, except for an attack on a jail.

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=74156
Moods varied from incredulity to anger and outrage as people discovered in the morning the phones were no longer working. ..... the state machinery organised elaborate rallies
.... the protests ended in minutes and, in some cases, the activists took to their heels.
... swooped down on a rights activist while he was returning from a conference in Europe.

- http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/5983_1248020,00430005.htm
...."As a result of this sweeping censorship, media organisations have been shut down, journalists have been arrested, the public doesn't know what's going on and close to 800 journalists are out of work,"

- http://www.newkerala.com/news-daily/news/features.php?action=fullnews&id=74117
Even more affected are the daily labourers who used to earn about 100 rupees a day now they can't even manage 10

- http://www.hindustantimes.com/news/181_1246403,001300980000.htm
a powerful six-member anti-graft commission that would probe and jail corrupt people and confiscate property amassed through abuse of authority and smuggling.

- http://www.bangladeshjournal.com/index.php?ID=3470
Nepal Army kills 43 terrorist rebels

- http://www.asiamedia.ucla.edu/article.asp?parentid=20866
In the hills, where the Maoists were making significant gains and setting up an entirely separate government, the group had a reputation for honesty, consistency, a sense of humour and astonishing brutality. .... By January of 2005, the Maoists controlled almost the entire area of Nepal outside the Kathmandu Valley. In their village theatre performances they began to co-opt the same heroic and martial rhetoric which had previously been used to legitimate the Shah dynasty......Ironically, the Shah dynasty found itself barricaded inside that same valley into which it had pinned the Newars 250 years before. ....There are some reports of popular protests, but by and large the country is keeping quiet.

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1024471.cms

- http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/articleshow/1024339.cms
"I haven't read a newspaper with any information on how the international community has reacted to the emergency in my country or what is the fate of arrested political leaders and human rights activists," said Madhav Pyakhurel, a businessmen.

- http://www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=42088
Nepal's King Gyanendra on Friday said that he took over power in order to save the country's democracy and talked about holding impartial elections.....

INSN

International Nepal Solidarity Network

http://www.insn.org/

- http://www.insn.org/

I will no longer be posting to this thread. Instead, you can find me at this blog:

http://demrepubnepal.blogspot.com/

- http://demrepubnepal.blogspot.com/

I clicked on this thread thinking it's about beautiful girls